Determinan Nilai Tukar di Negara Emerging Market ASEAN Tahun 2008-2023

Naura Alya Manar, Banatul Hayati

Abstract

Nilai tukar merupakan salah satu indikator makroekonomi penting yang memengaruhi stabilitas ekonomi, perdagangan internasional, dan daya saing suatu negara. Negara emerging market ASEAN memiliki tingkat keterbukaan ekonomi dan integrasi keuangan yang tinggi, serta umumnya menerapkan rezim nilai tukar mengambang terkendali sehingga pergerakan nilai tukarnya rentan terhadap guncangan kondisi makroekonomi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh tingkat harga domestik, suku bunga, pertumbuhan JUB, dan net ekspor terhadap nilai tukar di negara emerging market ASEAN, yaitu Indonesia, Malaysia, Filipina, dan Thailand, terhadap dolar AS selama periode 2008–2023. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah regresi data panel Fixed Effect Model (FEM). Hasil estimasi menunjukkan bahwa tingkat harga domestik berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar, serta pertumbuhan JUB berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap nilai tukar. Sementara itu, suku bunga dan dummy net ekspor tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar. Secara simultan, seluruh variabel independen berpengaruh terhadap nilai tukar. Temuan ini mengonfirmasi bahwa pergerakan nilai tukar merupakan hasil interaksi berbagai variabel independen yang memengaruhi keseimbangan permintaan dan penawaran valuta asing

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.47729/indicators.v8i1.202